We need to address our foreign policy initiatives. We haven’t played a decent game of microwave chicken since Cuba – and mutual annihilation saved the day – the mullahs arent afraid of death (or so we believe). Leaving us with preemptive strike or “welcome to the nukular club”.

This is not about what will happen today, tomorrow or even five years from now. Iran with one or two nukes is a threat – no bones about it – but a limited one. They will cease to exist if they choose to use it as an offensive capability.

A war with Iran (promulgated by the bombing of the known nuke facilities and mining operations – with tactical nukes might I add) will put the USA in a military and foreign policy debacle. One which I believe the country will not recover from and end up in unsuccessful future foreign policy. Revenge runs deep – if we do not annihilate the entire country and their supporters, we will be faced with continuous jihad. The second choice is to negotiate a settlement where they win. If it is brokered through China or Russia it could appear we “caved” to international pressure, but we could renew “communications” with Iran and get back on a non-proliferation track.

If I am wrong and Iran foolishly nukes Isreal after acquiring one or two bombs, we can go in and pave Persia with the blessing of the entire international community. Who knows? They may even supply some military.

Do the diplomats have an idea for a “middle-ground” solution? I doubt it (or at least I doubt it will stop Iran – see NoKo and Pak).

This is one of those cost-risk assessments nobody wants to face – clearly either choice has high costs and risks.

Bioagents have far more scary potential. Think Ebola Flu.

That doesn’t mean we should cave. They are the nihilistic fatalists, not us.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060502/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iran_nuclear

You cant keep a good mullah down.

Eventually, it will happen. How else did NoKo and Pak get theirs?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_enrichment

It doesnt take much.

The other side of the coin…

http://cfr.org/publication/10331/

What Joe and others fail to recognize is the continuous exportation of nuclear technology. The more who have it, the more that want it. Some are looking for the quick fix and others the long road to “prestige”. In either case, Nuclear proliferation worldwide will continue to burden the west with an ominous threat.

Carnegie’s valiant effort for non-proliferation begins to take on the same status as the UN – pretty, but what does it do. With continued global competition, the nuclear technology becomes an exportable commodity – herein lies the problem.