For anyone wanting a tactical analysis of the US military’s struggle with jihadis in painfully dry and wonky detail I can recommend Militant Tricks. Here follows my report of the book’s most salient points and some thoughts it inspired.

Amazon’s summary:

This book gauges America’s progress in Iraq and Afghanistan from a unique perspective—that of East-Asian battlefield deception. As both countries were part of the Mongol Empire for over 200 years, they are a perfect breeding ground for every sort of ancient Chinese trick—any one of the famous “36 Strategems.” In combination, those stratagems have the power to make a losing adversary think he is winning. They have done so before to America.

To see past the militant Muslim’s false face, one must look for the hidden intent behind his every initiative—whether martial or otherwise. Between September 2004 and September 2005, this book does just that for both theaters of war. For some readers, it will serve as an intelligence reference manual and be read a few paragraphs at a time. For others, it will provide an in-depth solution to the enemy’s so-far-successful formula and be read cover to cover. Militant Tricks reveals enemy information that active-duty Americans seldom see—that which is contained in the regional media and literature. When properly interpretted (by a student of Eastern tactics and mindset), that information may shed enough light on ongoing events to permit the salvaging of both wars.

While focusing mainly on events taking place in Iraq H. John Poole’s story weaves together lessons learned by the US military in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, as well as the Israelis in Lebanon (1982-2000). After a hundred pages detailing incidents in Iraq and Afghanistan and another hundred reviewing these events in light of the 36 Stratagems the prognosis does not appear good:

Other Parts of the Joint Strategy

By early 2004, the Iraqi militants’ overall strategy had become clearly obvious: (1) curtail the flow of oil, (2) eliminate government-supplied social services, (3) isolate occupying forces, and (4) discredit/subvert local security forces. The first was done during commando raids. The second was accomplished with sabotage, assassination, and hostage taking. The third was achieved by using IEDs to limit the flow of supplies and tie occupying forces to thier vehicles or bunkers. The fourth was performed through repeatedly corruptiong or killing police and army personnel.

Something similar drove the Israelis out of Southern Lebanon and the Russians out of Afghanistan. Until someone finds a solution, this strategy will stalk the Third World.

Poole argues persuasively that Eastern-style “light infantry” are not in fact as inferior to US-style “heavy infantry” as so many Westerners in and outside the military seem to believe. The difference isn’t only one of weight, mechanization, or firepower. It is the tactics of Fourth Generation Warfare:

These techniques focus not so much on the enemy’s military capabilities (although these may be attacked) but directly against the will of the enemy to continue the war.

The crucial insight is that 4GW battlefields are not constrained to the time and space occupied by soldiers firing weapons. They include terrorism and sabotage. Fifth columns and mob violence. Peace demonstrations and elections. Jihadis have long recognized the value of dirty tricks. Mohammed himself ordered assassinations. Today’s jihadis will continue to exploit civilization’s gullible media, sleazy politics, and fragile economy as long as we let them.

“Shock and Awe” Is a Thing of the Past

In essence, the technologically deficient and financially strapped East has developed a style of warfare that requires no tanks or planes. It depends instead on surprise. That surprise is almost entirely based on the West’s preoccupation with firepower. To penetrate a Western base, the Easterner creates the impression of an indirect-fire attack. To blow up something within that base, he pretends to score a lucky mortar hit. The Muslim militant has taken this analogy one step farther. With the suicide bomber, he has created a precision munition.

The Vietnamese may have been financially strapped. The oil funded jihadis are not. They can buy any technology they need. They don’t use it for tanks and planes. Instead the jihadis leverage disruptive technologies – nets & jets, cell phones, TATP – to wreak destruction and chaos, to literally disrupt civilization. During and in the wake of the chaos they come to power, praising Allah’s greatness, posing as heroes.

Poole recommends that the US military train its own light infantry. Further, that this training should instill a more flexible doctrine of tactics, offensive and defensive, relying on stealth, deception, and surprise. Also that command should be more decentralized to enable smaller units to function more autonomously.

I’m afraid this won’t be enough. Until the ideology and history of jihad becomes better known amongst infidels the danger will go on, incompletely recognized and only partially countered.

Two more pieces from Heimchen. The first he describes like so:

The attached piece, while not particularly well written, nonetheless shows more evidence of growing concern re the Islamic threat. Curiously, it addresses this threat in England – not a word about Germany or the universality of the threat. Nor is there a hint of what to do about it. Which, of course speaks of the fear of a real confrontation. The sentiment was expressed by X a couple of years ago in a discussion I had with him in Berlin. I broached the subject of possible help for America by Germany in the war on terror. His statement was, we (the Germans) try to lay low in hopes that we can keep from getting involved.

I feel that Europe will eventually have to join us. Sadly, however, this will only occur when Muslim audacity and terrorism will reach a level where there is no longer a choice and public outcry will force their governments’ hand. This may take a while as the attitude of appeasement and the denial that comes from fear of confrontation will be in the way of action for some time to come.

The original is here. His translation:

The following is a piece gleaned from the Berlin daily “DER TAGESSPIEGEL” from 8/11/06.

Terror in London
Return of the Evil People

By Moritz Schuller

In the USA the first Hollywood film about the 9/11 has just hit the theaters. In London the police, by their own account, has thwarted a “mass murder of unimaginable dimensions”. There is no time for cultural reconciliation; the terror continues. It is reality. It is not even clear yet whether this latest suicide attempt has been prevented or merely delayed.

That is was aimed at England is hardly a surprise. Only a few months ago Muslims marched through London, carrying posters that proclaimed “Europe is a cancerous ulcer and Islam is the cure”, and “To hell with Freedom”. A veiled woman predicted “The real Holocaust” for Europe. It is a good bet that the 24 suspects caught in Birmingham and London had enthusiastically taken part in that demonstration.

The British minister of the interior, somewhat awkwardly, talks about “very evil people”, while at the same time not daring to mention their ethnic-religious identity. As successful as the police work in this case may have been, should the perpetrators – like the ones from of the subway bombings of a year ago – come from the middle class, there would be important reasons to questions the British politics appeasement towards its militant Islamic Minority. After all, how much more clearly can its goals be stated than at the demonstrations last February.

Because whoever believes that such radical demonstrators may be placated by the construction of a splendid mosque in Kiez, or as is now shockingly open debated, by the abolition of the state of Israel, is simply naive. Their political goal is nothing less than an Islamic Europe. The historical hurt for them is not Israel. It is Al Andalus, the Spanish region from which the Muslims had been ejected many centuries ago.

In the five years between New York and London, the Islamic threat has been dealt with in ways that differ much in London and New York. But the threat has gone away neither through war nor reconciliation and not even through the fight against the core of Al Qaeda. In fact, Jihad has – which may be clearly observed in England – developed into a sort of fashion phenomenon amongst Islamic youths. Thus the conflict does not go away but rather it is escalating, despite the many attempts at a solution.

Even if the violent attempts may be prevented it cannot be denied that they affect our freedom. If the perpetrators really intended to use liquid explosives, the threat would have taken on an entirely new dimension. The massive effects on air travel – already a reality – would have to become permanent: No carry-on baggage, no fluids into the aircraft. A snowstorm or a pilot strike might have caused similar chaos at the London Airport. And the humiliation – to use a term from the culture wars – that comes with eating the baby formula at the security gate to prove that it is not dangerous – is something we will have to live with. It will, however, be a life in which the threat can only be checked but never totally removed. The model for such a way of life – not surprisingly – may be observed in Israel.

Next comes an essay of his own:

August 15, 2006

WHOSE VICTORY?

Yesterday, on the occasion of the Mid-eastern cease fire, President Bush went public claiming victory for Israel, while similarly, Mullah Nasrallah claimed the same for Hesbollah. Sadly, the mullah was right. While Israel probably killed more terrorists than Hesbollah killed Israelis, we need to consider the fact that this does not count as a tragedy to Islamo-fascists because they love death as their leaders have convinced them that dying for Islam in the fight against the hated infidel transports them straight to heaven. More importantly, anything but total victory and disarmament of Hesbollah cannot count as a victory for Israel. All it will serve is the prolongation of the bloody fight that this small country has had to wage against terrorism since its inception in 1949. The UN sponsored cease-fire, endorsed by western powers including the US, will only prolong the agony. To top it all off, UN Secretary General, Kofi Annan, has been appointed overseer of the cease fire and has not wasted any time before firing off a letter of warning to Jerusalem, saying that Israel better not respond with any force to provocations from Hesbollah. The later, as if to thumb its nose at Israel, has already launched a few rockets at Israelis, albeit without much effect.

The circumspect observer, watching terrorism and the march of radical Islam virtually across the globe, as well as the outright proclamations and threats against western civilization in countries, particularly in Europe, finds himself appalled at the continuing attitude of appeasement that pervades politics and the media in the western world. What is it those folks do not see? Or do they not want to see it? How many Terror attacks have to happen, how many have to be thwarted at the last minute before the awful truth sinks in? How many Muslims have to march through the streets of western capitals, calling for the conquest of the western world by Islam before the it wakes up to the clear and present danger we face?

One does not have to be an accredited historian to see the eerie parallels between the present time and 1936, when Nazi Germany was getting ready to conquer the world. Then too, the forces of appeasement were pretending that everything was fine and there was no cause for concern. The result of allowing Hitler to continue on his path of rearming Germany and preparing for war was the death of 6 million Jews and 9 million civilians in Russia alone.

WW-2 raged for 6 years and caused untold casualties and destruction. But the threat of Islamic dominance is vastly more serious. The enemy is not a nation or group of nations but a fanatical religious faction that pervades most of the world, operates surreptitiously from a shadow world and places as little value on the life of its fighters as it does the enemy. Iran is emerging as the string puller behind Jihad. Ahmandinejad, its nut-case leader is openly promising destruction of Israel. Are we going to wait till they get their hands on THE BOMB?

Only a handful of people I know recognize the threat. The rest frown and change the subject when Islam comes up. It’s not only that they don’t know what’s going on. They don’t want to know.

Another transmission from das Heimchen, who writes:

Note that the author lives in Washington. Though it is not clear from his name whether he is American, it is possible that the original text was in English. This would mean that you are looking at a translation of a translation and would explain the somewhat disjointed narrative.

Heimchen didn’t provide a URL for the original, but I think this is it.

The following appeared in the online edition of the German DIE WELT on August 9.

THE VICARIOUS WAR

A Cease-Fire Will Bring No Peace.

By Walter Laqueur

At some time there will be a cease-fire and the war between Hesbollah and Israel will come to an end. But one must not forget that this is a vicarious war. In interviews by Arabic newspapers, Iranian officers have explained how important their role was in preparations of the assault, not only as suppliers of weapons but also as trainers and advisors in almost every aspect.

Tehran was under pressure to quit enrichment of Uranium by the end of August. The distraction from their own aims by the Lebanon war was therefore most welcome.

Today hardly anyone doubts that Tehran will continue with its enrichment program. To stall for time, there will be more negotiations. But already, the Iranian government leaves no doubt as to where the preparations will lead: Iran wants to be the leading power in the Middle East. The Arabian countries will be those chiefly affected by this because Tehran does not only want to control its own oil fields but also those of it’s neighbors. Neither Egypt nor Turkey produce significant amounts of oil but they are not going to enjoy taking orders from Shiite fanatics. Most likely they will aim at obtaining their own nuclear devices.

There are no territorial– or other conflicts between Israel and Iran, besides the odium theologicum of the Iranian rulers. However, Tehran reiterates, time and again, that Israel must be rubbed out.

What this would mean, should Iran succeed in building a nuclear weapon, one can only imagine. On the other hand one has to assume that Israel also has nuclear capabilities and the means for a counter strike. In such a scenario, what would be left of Iranian Cities and oil fields? Possibly, the Iranian leadership would again be implementing a vicarious war, in hopes that this would blur the evidence of it’s own culpability. But the Israelis would hardly be fooled by such a maneuver.

How would a man react who is threatened with death by a neighbor? If he could, he might move or he would weigh the possibility that his neighbor is nothing but a posturing bigmouth. But when the evidence mounts that the danger is getting closer and more serious, he may decide on preemptory action. He might conclude that he owes such action to his family, especially if, already, a large part of his family has recently been killed. His defense might start in the form of negotiations involving third persons or with counter threats but if this doesn’t help he will resort to force. Of course, the latter might be a dangerous step because a historical world court might decide that there was no certainty that the danger was clear and present enough to warrant emergency measures. But, in any case, the survival of the threatened party would, for the time being, be secured.

These thoughts are no more than horror scenarios. But they are by no means absurd. They illustrate that, even after a cease fire, the clouds of conflict will not disappear from the Middle Eastern sky.

The author is known as the father of terrorism research. He resides in Washington, DC.

The ceasefire will be a hopeless failure. Mainly because Hizballah can’t keep themselves from lobbing missles and digging tunnels, and the hapless UN peace-delayers sure won’t stop them.

If you enjoyed Dean Barnett at SOXBLOG then you’ll welcome his move to Hugh Hewitt’s blog. For days now he’s been on fire.

Take this post for instance:

SO HOW WILL THE WAR END? With lots of dead Jihadists. Just like World War II ended with lots of dead Nazis and imperialist troops of Japan. There were so many dead, the rest lost their will to fight on. Only when they realize their destruction is imminent (and accomplished to a great degree) will there be peace.

Until the Jihadists realize they can’t win, they will continue to fight. Every instance of Western weakness succors them. Every U.N. resolution, European cry for diplomacy and academic case for moral equivalency feeds their notion that their victory is inevitable.

Getting to victory will be an ugly thing. Our weapons will kill innocents, just as they did in Nagasaki and Dresden. And we will suffer our own losses. It’s becoming increasingly apparent that America will have to suffer a grievous loss before unshackling its own might. And our first grievous loss will not be our last. Like any global conflagration, this one will be full of horrors, horrors that most refuse to contemplate.

SO WHAT’S THE ALTERNATIVE? Graham Allison, Joe Nye and other Kennedy School types will tell you that we can talk Radical Islamists out of this whole crazy Jihad thing with just some judicious use of our “soft power.” We can win hearts and minds, they argue, if we just try a little tenderness.

Their argument, however, betrays a spectacular ignorance regarding Jihad philosophy . There’s nothing new going on here, nothing that’s not 14 centuries old. The only difference is that a trillion dollars in petro-dollars has given the forces of Jihad power and reach that even the Prophet never imagined. To think we can jawbone our way out of this is dangerously wishful thinking.

Emphasis mine.

If I had a dollar for every person I’ve met who expressed a strong opinion on geopolitics but admitted to not knowing very much about Islam (“but I’m sure they’re just like us”) I’d have a hundred bucks by now. But that’s not the point. The point is I have yet to meet a pacifist who does know much about Islam. Leftists just aren’t interested. For them it’s all a big neocon hoax. Other people barely have time to track the news. Only those who have some understanding of Islam see clearly the imperative to resist it. They may disagree concerning timing or methods, but they don’t question the threat.

The problem is Westerners who know something of Islam are in the minority. Western politics wouldn’t be nearly so divisive if every infidel (or at least those who like to argue geopolitics) took some time to educate themselves. What are Islam’s values? What are its goals? What are its methods for achieving those goals? What is its history? I’m confident that most anyone who digs for honest objective answers to these questions will arrive at conclusions similar to Dean Barnett’s, and my own.

Some will instead come to see it Islam’s way. The infidels are pigs and monkeys. They are unclean and unworthy of compassion or respect. Their lands and riches will belong to the umma soon enough. That some will feel this way we cannot help. There will always be misfits, and among them are the idealists and nihilists who can and have become traitors.

Most of the prominent voices questioning Islam, like Barnett, choose to use the qualifier “radical”. As in “radical Islam”. Is this really justified? If the intent is to imply that our enemy is a minority of Muslims I’m afraid it is in error. Jihad and sharia law are incompatible with civilization. Yet they are also fundamental tenets of Islam. Without them Islam is not Islam. In other words the very foundation of Islam is rotten, and the “radicals” who adhere to it are in the majority.

Many may consider this an unacceptable thing to say, but the power of such honest statements should not be underestimated. When Ronald Reagan called the Soviet Union an evil empire Western pacifists laughed, nervously. Years later word came from behind the ruins of the Iron Curtain that Reagan’s words helped bring it down. We can pretend not to notice Islam’s flaws, perhaps to avoid offending the moderates, but then again only radicals are offended by honest criticism.

What’s that? They’re all offended? Well then, not what I had hoped, but I do rest my case.

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld told the Senate Armed Services Committee:

Rumsfeld elaborated on the difference between the two sides: “One side does all it can to avoid civilian casualties, while the other side uses civilians as shields, and then skillfully orchestrates a public outcry when the other side accidentally kills civilians in their midst. One side is held to exacting standards of near perfection; the other side is held to no standards and no accountability at all.”

We must not blame the poor and downtrodden for exploiting whatever means to which they are forced to stoop in order to wage war against their brutal oppressors. Civilization on the other hand must tie both hands behind its back while trying to keep the surprisingly well-armed poor and downtrodden at bay.

The sooner we all recognize and reject the contradictory and ultimately suicidal logic behind this double standard the better.